David Cameron has recently stated that the consent of the British people for continued membership of the EU is ÔÇÿwafer thin.ÔÇÖ For this reason he argues that an immediate referendum would be a false choice, as the UKÔÇÖs possibility of leaving the EU is a bargaining chip for securing future reforms in Brussels. He then claimed that by re-negotiating membership of the EU, the case for a yes vote would be ÔÇÿa much easier argument to win.ÔÇÖ
This view was echoed by the CBI business lobbying groupÔÇÖs director general, who said ÔÇÿwe are better off in a reformed EU than outside with no influence.ÔÇÖ In a recent paper, CBI reported that 85 percent of manufacturing firms would vote to stay in the EU if there was an immediate referendum, and that membership is worth 4-5% of the UKÔÇÖs annual economic output.
But in the public opinion, ÔÇÿwafer thinÔÇÖ appears to be about right. Most recent polls show no clear majority for or against remaining in the EU.┬á The increasingly Eurosceptic outlook in recent years has fuelled the rise of UKIP, which now polls in the double figures in many key Tory marginal seats. Negating this effect may have had an impact on the governmentÔÇÖs position on a referendum after the next election, as well as appeasing Eurosceptic backbenchers.
This push for reform is in the context of rising EU budget misspending, with irregularities affecting 4.8 percent of the 139 euros spent by the EU last year, according to the European Court of Auditors. This is while overall growth in Europe remains non-existent. The European Commission predicts a stagnating economy and persistently high unemployment this year, before a beginning a muted recovery from next year.
Whether the motivation behind David CameronÔÇÖs announcement is a result of party management or not (he claims that it is not a ÔÇÿtactical ployÔÇÖ), the Liberal Democrats are also behind a referendum at some point as a response if a major piece of EU legislation is proposed which would affect the UK. Whether Labour will eventually match this pledge for a referendum at a defined date is still unclear.
Since the vote on membership of the European Economic Community in 1975, the public have had no say in an organisation which has transformed in scope and funding. With a decision in the next few years looking very possible, uncertainly may already be having an impact on investment in the UK. Whether the result is a yes vote or a complete exit from the EU hinges largely on whether the government can score real concessions and reforms.
Alex Smith
Politics Writer
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