Politics

Results night: LIVE!

15:00 – It’s all over

All the results are in, and here are the final numbers:

Conservatives: 331 seats

Labour: 232 seats

SNP: 56 seats

Liberal Democrats: 8 seats

DUP: 8 seats

Plaid Cymru: 3 seats

Green Party: 1 seat

UKIP: 1 seat

Some important points of the day:

  • David Cameron will remain PM with a Conservative majority government
  • Ed Miliband has resigned as the Labour leader
  • Nick Clegg has resigned as the Liberal Democrats leader
  • Nigel Farage has resigned as the UKIP leader
  • Jo Stevens made a Labour gain in Cardiff Central
  • Craig Williams held Cardiff North for the Conservatives

We have been keeping this General Election 2015 liveblog updated since 11AM yesterday, and 28 hours later we are signing off, goodbye!

13:00 ÔÇô Local candidates are tweeting

Some updates from Twitter from the local candidates:


https://twitter.com/Martin_Pollard/status/596606696111374336
https://twitter.com/Martin_Pollard/status/596610120211136512
.

12:30 ÔÇô CONSERVATIVE MAJORITY CONFIRMED

It is confirmed that the Conservative party has reached a majority in the House of Commons, and David Cameron will carry on as Prime Minister of the United Kingdom.

12:00 ÔÇô Goodbye Mr Miliband

After an extremely disappointing night for Labour, Ed Miliband is resigning as the Labour party leader.
Here are the main points from his statement:
Earlier today he congratulated David Cameron.

He apologizes for all the MPs that lost their seats and all candidates that were disappointed.
Congratulates all candidates that were elected that will help the party move forward from here.
Thanks the incredible team of Labour activists and members that pounded the streets in the campaign.
“Britain needs a strong Labour party.”
It’s time for someone else to take the reigns of the party.
Harriet Harman is the best deputy leader you could ask for and Miliband is proud to have her as his deputy.
Harriet Harman will take over until a new leader is elected.
Thanks the nation for sharing their stories and selfies with him, and of course the Milifandom!
Address to those who voted Labour: we may have lost the election, but the fight goes on, and Labour will keep making the case for a country that works for working people once again.
Across the UK, there is more that unites us than divides us, and we must all rise to the challenge to keep our country together.
A message for the Labour party: this party has come back before and will come back again.
Change happens because people don’t give up.

11:30 – Goodbye Nick Clegg

19/04/2Photo by James Gourley/Liberal Democrats
19/04/2Photo by James Gourley/Liberal Democrats

Nick Clegg has issued a statement announcing his resignation, here are the main points:

  • “I expected this election to be exceptionally difficult”, but this election has been ever more crushing than he feared, and he will resign as the leader
  • Has been leader of the party for 7 years, and a party leadership election will now commence
  • Thanks every member, campaigner, councillor and parliamentarian for their commitment to this part
  • Heartbreaking to see so many colleagues fail to get re-elected fro Nick Clegg
  • He accepts Lib Dems losses today for every positive thing they’ve done in government
  • “We don’t know how many lives we changed when we stepped up” to join the coalition
  • Says this country is more liberal and greener than what it was in 2010
  • Hopes that history books will treat his party fairly for what they have brought to government
  • Too early to give an account on why the party suffered such catastrophic losses
  • Liberalism in the UK and across Europe is not faring well against the politics of fear
  • Grievance and fear are driving our societies apart, speaking of the fear of the SNP in England
  • Liberalism, that we are strong together and weaker apart, is more important than ever, and we must keep fighting for it
  • “The most crushing blow for the Liberal Democrats, but there is a way back”
  • “Our party will come back, our party will win again”

That’s the first party leader gone, we’re sorry you didn’t get to see more of Nick Clegg, in fact, we’re really really sorry:

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=KUDjRZ30SNo
.

11:25 – Farage first leader to resign

Nigel Farage has formally resigned as leader of the UKIP party.
Farage failed to win Thanet seat from Conservatives and has resigned as leader.
He has called for the recognition of UKIP successes in the lead up to this election, and is positive for the prospects of the party looking to the future.
He said however, he may stand for leadership of the party again in September.

11:00 – Clegg & Miliband are going

After losses of up to 27% in most seats, Nick Clegg is due to make a statement at 11:30, and is expected to announce his resignation as party leader.
It was a big risk for the party joining the coalition in 2010, and politically, it has not worked out for them, down on 8 seats currently, crashing down from the 57 in 2010.

Miliband is also widely expected to resign in a statement at midday, after a dismal result for Labour in Scotland, in England and even in Wales for his party.

At 12:30, Cameron is expected to arrive at the palace announcing to the queen he is able to control a majority in the commons.

10:55 Conservatives reach 323 with 12 to go

According to the BBC, the Conservatives have now reached 323 seats, short by 3 of a theoretical majority, but bang on for a majority in reality when you consider that Sinn Fein do not take their seats in Westminster.

10:45 – Farage misses out on South Thanet

In one of the final seats being announced in the election, Nigel Farage came in second place, and will not be standing as an MP.

Full Results:
Conservatives: 18,838
UKIP: 16,026
Labour: 11,740
Greens: 1,076
Lib Dems: 932
Al Murray: 318
Others: 471

  • It is expected the prominent UKIP leader will now resign as party leader
  • In his speech, Farage stated that he’s “never felt happier” and that a massive weight has been lifted from his shoulders

9:00 – Farage asks reporter: “Are you calling me a liar?”

Nigel Farage has just appeared on TV. A reporter asked him if he would resign, and his response may be the final nail in the coffin:

https://twitter.com/KevinJRawlinson/status/596584319210168322

We had assumed he might be able to wiggle out of it by looking at UKIP’s national vote share – but he’s thrown down the gauntlet now.

8:40 – The Machinations of Government

Eaten breakfast? Good. There have been some more major developments.

David Cameron is almost certainly going to be prime minister.

According to the BBC, 3.6mil people nationwide voted UKIP.

Labour are largely in disarray:

https://twitter.com/GilesSkyNews/status/596580399997972481

Ed Balls, in one of many Portillo moments for Labour tonight, has lost his seat. Guido Fawkes’ team acted as you might expect:

https://vine.co/v/emzeAD5LKu0

6:00 – Good morning, Cardiff!

I don’t think anybody expected us to be here this morning.

Here are some talking points:

  • Both Ed Miliband and Nick Clegg have signified they are set to resign.
  • David Cameron is set to form a government.
  • Natalie Bennett did secure a seat, and will likely resign.
  • Plaid did worse than expected in Wales, securing only three seats.
  • UKIP’s vote share has been very good, but will not secure many seats. They only have Farage. Thurrock is gone.
  • The Liberal Democrats have been all but wiped out. Laws, Hughes, Cable, Swinson – all gone.
  • The SNP have all but secured Scotland. One Con, one Lab, one 1 LD.
  • George Galloway is out of the commons, and unlikely to return.

5:50 – David Cameron re-elected, indicates he will seek to form government

We got a long speech. Themes of One Nation Conservatism. He’s back in government, if not in reality, then in spirit.

Gareth Evans and I called this some time ago. It’s going to happen – and soon, I think.

5:40 – WALES IS IN

All Welsh seats in, now. Here’s the breakdown:

  • 25 Labour
  • 11 Conservative
  • 3 Plaid
  • 1 Liberal Democrat

The popular vote in Wales, Labour 36.9%, Cons 27.2%, UKIP 13.6%, Plaid 12.1%, LD 6.5%, Green 2.6%. UKIP have done ridiculously well: UKIP had 2.4% of the vote in 2010, and the Lib Dems 20.1%

5:15 – Calling it now: Clegg is going to resign

If you missed it on TV, Clegg basically said it. He won’t be LD this time tomorrow. Farron likely to be next leader. Not very many other candidates (David Laws, and three other LD ministers, are all gone).

Via BBC:

Clegg says it has “profound implications” for the party, and also, for his leadership.

Also, lol:

nick_clegg_-_Google_Search

5:10 – Surprises at Norwich South and Gower

Norwich South was predicted to go to the Greens – but it was not to be:

https://twitter.com/NickehBee/status/596527968723312640

The Tories have taken the Gower, which has been a labour seat for over 80 years.

It is absolutely unexpected. There is genuine disbelief in the office.

5:00 – Clegg HOLD and Ed balls to LOSE SEAT

Reports that Ed Balls to lose his seat:

4:55 – Jo Stevens has spoken to Gair Rhydd about the Cardiff Central result

14149872812_07d014dac1

In what might be the first interview with Jo Stevens to be published, we managed to snag a quick chat with Jo Stevens. Here’s some snippets:

‘I have spent two years knocking on people’s doors and found that people have been unhappy with Lib Dem MP who was essentially a Tory representative.’

‘My aim is to be as visible and accessible as possible. I start work tomorrow.’

On tonight’s result: ‘I don’t know what it means for Ed yet. The decision will be made by him and it will be the best decision for the party.’

4:50 – Edinburgh South: LABOUR HOLD

Stop the presses: the SNP haven’t got ’em all. Labour have held Edinburgh South.

By the way, Carwyn Williams has just had a chat with Jo Stevens. We’ll get the interview up on the live blog shortly.

4:45 – Shoutouts to ERS Cymru

The Electoral Reform Society Cymru have tweeted out some great stuff tonight. Here’s a snippet:

4:40 – Cable OUT

VINCE-CABLE_2671996b

Oh dear. I think there was a general agreement that Cable was the least happy with the coalition among cabinet ministers. I imagine people will see it as something of an injustice that Vince is gone while Clegg is slated to stay.

The LDs have also lost Eastbourne.

4:30 – Boris Johnson elected as MP for Uxbridge

Mayor of London Boris Johnson won the seat of Uxbridge with a majority of 10,695 – and will now fulfil his parliamentary duties in conjuction with the mayoralty until the end of his term in 2016.

His victory comes in spite of the fact that upon re-election as London Mayor, Boris promised not to seek re-election to the commons until he’d finished the job.

Speculation abound that he was hoping for a less successful night for the Conservatives, allowing him a shot at the leadership.

4:20 – Cardiff West and South: Labour HOLD

That’s 3 of 4 of Cardiff’s constituencies to Labour.

4:12 – Cardiff North: Conservative HOLD

Heath students, you’re keeping your MP. Jonathan Evans is duly re-elected the MP for Cardiff North. Mari Williams came second.

https://twitter.com/cranfieldadams/status/596513525209628672

Not everyone is overjoyed by this:

https://twitter.com/eringillespie94/status/596513579584659456

Cardiff Uni student Ethan Wilkinson came third.

4:12 – Cardiff North: Conservative HOLD

Heath students, you’re keeping your MP. Jonathan Evans is duly re-elected the MP for Cardiff North. Mari Williams came second.

https://twitter.com/cranfieldadams/status/596513525209628672

Not everyone is overjoyed by this:

https://twitter.com/eringillespie94/status/596513579584659456

Cardiff Uni student Ethan Wilkinson came third.

4:10 – South Thanet count delayed until 9am, say reports.

Shenanigans afoot. We’ll have to wait some time to see if the rumours surrounding Farage’s demise are true.

4:00 - Vote swing in Wales: 29/40 seats confirmed

UKIP’s having a good night in┬áWales. No seats yet. Lib Dems are having the worst night:

  • UKIP: +12%
  • Green: +2%
  • Labour: +1%
  • Plaid Cymru: +0.9%
  • Conservatives: +0.8%
  • Lib Dem: -13.3%

03:45 – Cardiff South: Labour HOLD

… and Stephen Kinnock’s won in Aberavon.

In other news, the Tories have requested a recount in Thurrock.

03:44 – Cleggopalypse now

Nick Clegg is probably a goner. Maybe he’ll keep his seat, but even the party’s grassroots deserting him.

Via BBC:

Lib Dem candidate for St Albans, Sandy Walkington, says he would be “shocked” if Nick Clegg remained leader after this election.

03:41 – In other news…

https://twitter.com/lucyynelson/status/596486667684466689/photo/1

03:31 – Cardiff Central: Willott OUT, Jo Stevens IN

Around 10,000 votes for Willott. 15,000 for Jo Stevens. A terrible outcome for Willott.

We’ve been suggesting for a while that Stevens has been a much superior campaigner. I guess it paid off:

https://twitter.com/mikeocd/status/594524337853636610

03:28 – Calling it: LDs lost Cardiff Central

Jenny Willott, the dream is over.

03:24 – On the BBC Anchors

Rob Thomas has this to say regarding Andrew Neil and co’s performance this evening:

It’s long been the rhetoric of the right to attack the BBC as a right leaning entity. This has been perpetuated in this election by Nigel Farage who, in the BBC leaders debate, attacked what he saw as the corporation and the audience’s left wing bias.

Looking at those presenting the BBC’s election result programme gives a different perspective. We see Andrew Neil (a confirmed admirer of Margaret Thatcher and a former employee of the Conservative party) and David Dimbleby (a former member of the Bullingdon Club) heading election coverage. Then there’s Political Editor Nick Robinson, a former President of the Oxford University Conservative Association.

Plenty of other programming too has reflected a willingness to push the government agenda. John Humphrys, in his 2011 documentary ‘The Future State of Welfare’ seemed to put across a ‘skivers versus strivers’ narrative. This was duly endorsed as ‘thoughtful and intelligent’ by Iain Duncan Smith but later criticised by the BBC Trust for breaking impartiality guidelines.

A Cardiff Uni content analysis shows that the BBC typically favours the right. Here’s a citation, if you’re interested / an amnesiac.

03:21 – Cardiff Central to announce shortly

https://twitter.com/Aimlee_Abraham/status/596499135479578624

Newport East held by Labour.

03:10 – MURPHY LOSES SEAT

Jim Murphy’s lost his seat. The leader of Scottish Labour has lost his seat. The SNP have dealt a deathblow to Labour north of the border.

https://twitter.com/caffy_meiyen/status/596498274464485377

In other news, Newport West held by Labour with 41.2%

03:04┬á- Welsh Secretary “not complacent,” but “encouraged”

24f12stephen-491188

Welsh Secretary Stephen Crabb said the Tories were “not counting any chickens but early results are encouraging”.

Mr Crabb said he was “not complacent” about hanging on to the Preseli Pembrokeshire seat, saying “it has swung between the parties in the past but I am encouraged”.

He said the Conservatives had a “very positive, upbeat campaign across Wales”.

Gair Rhydd editor Gareth Evans is at the Pembrokeshire count. Crabb is very confident – Labour apparently aren’t┬áspeaking to anybody. He says they are “refusing all interviews.”

02:57 – With 12 confirmed MPs, the SNP has beaten their record of number of MPs

The SNP continue to paint Scotland yellow. Outside of Orkney, I don’t think they’ll fail to secure any seat. So let’s just take this earthquake as a given – and we’ll post if they don’t get anything.

02:52 – Gordon Brown’s old seat goes to the SNP

This is shaping up to be a really bad night for Labour. Supposedly about 10,000 majority to SNP.

02:49 – Wales vote share as it stands

9 of 40 Wales seats have been announced. Here’s the share so far:

  • Labour 39.6%
    Plaid Cymru 17.7%
    Conservative 17.5%
    UKIP 15.2%
    LibDems 6.9%
    Greens 2.3%

02:35 – George Galloway has conceded defeat in Bradford West

How’s your war against small businesses in Bradford going, George?

To make matters worse – he’s been reported to police for breaking election law.

02:30 – Summary of recent announcements

Bleanau Gwent, Llanelli, Caerphilly, Islington North all recently announced Labour holds. Paisley announced as SNP hold. Arfon is Plaid Cymru first announced win. Lib Dem first win of the night in Ceredigion.

Rob Thomas, joining us for the election, added the following:

Plaid vote share in it’s target seats of Arfon up by 8% (which it has held) but down in Llanelli by 7% and Ceredigion by 0.6%. Meanwhile, UKIP vote share up in Wales by 12.5% nationally.

02:27 – Mhairi Black’s victory is going to make you feel old

She’s 20. 20!

02:24 – Ed Miliband’s hours are numbered

I know a lot of people hoped that Ed’s Labour would sail into Westminster. But there’s not a lot of great news to report right now – and, indeed, it may yet get worse:

They’re still in the lead in terms of seats, at least! Right? … Right?

Former Cardiff Uni student Chris Evans suggests that Nick’s gone, too, and if the exit polls are right, he can’t last.

https://twitter.com/notchrisevans/status/596484632696070144

02:15 – Cardiff voters happy their vote actually counted

What do Caroline Lucas and Douglas Carswell agree on? That FPTP is broken. They even co-authored a bill to try and fix things. Strange bedfellows indeed.

But multiple people have tweeted that they’re happy they voted in Cardiff, or, that they wish they could have voted in Cardiff, because it’s a marginal:

https://twitter.com/wannahhall/status/596449588501938176

https://twitter.com/FionaMallows/status/596436514403438592

02:11 – Lib Dems HOLD Ceredigion

Not all bad for the LDs. Ceredigion was expected to flip to Plaid – but their majority has diminished from 8,000 to 1,000.

02:09 – Mirror calling it a win for Tories

The only left-leaning Tabloid, the Daily Mirror, has dropped the question mark on the below front page.

_82844283_d24f5440-88f5-46b9-9467-a17050030ca0

It was expected that the Mirror would support Labour ’til the very end. It’s not looking good.

02:06 – Richard Wyn Jones predicting bad outcome for Labour

Richard Wyn Jones, one of the most respected political scientists in Wales, has a very gloomy prognosis for Labour:

ÔÇ£If NE Wales result replicated across Wales this could be even worse for Labour in Wales than 2010 – which on some reckoning their worst ever.ÔÇØ

02:06 – Richard Wyn Jones predicting bad outcome for Labour

Richard Wyn Jones, one of the most respected political scientists in Wales, has a very gloomy prognosis for Labour:

ÔÇ£If NE Wales result replicated across Wales this could be even worse for Labour in Wales than 2010 – which on some reckoning their worst ever.ÔÇØ

1:52 – Nuneaton, Labour’s 34th target seat remains Conservatives .

A key Labour/Tory battleground has swung in Conservative favour. Labour needed this seat – so exit poll looking all the more accurate.

Conservatives: 20,827
Labour: 15,945
UKIP: 6,582
Greens: 1,281
Liberal Democrats: 816
TUSC: 194

1:52 – Nuneaton, Labour’s 34th target seat remains Conservatives .

A key Labour/Tory battleground has swung in Conservative favour. Labour needed this seat – so exit poll looking all the more accurate.

Conservatives: 20,827
Labour: 15,945
UKIP: 6,582
Greens: 1,281
Liberal Democrats: 816
TUSC: 194

1:38 – First NI result in (Lagan Valley)

… and DUP hold. It’s suggested that the DUP will be the Conservative’s coalition partner if they fail to secure a majority.

1:38 – Sinn Fein and the SDLP have both nabbed a seat.

West Tyrone is a “safe Sinn Fein hold” according to the BBC.

The SDLP hold Foyle.

1:38 – First NI result in (Lagan Valley)

… and DUP hold. It’s suggested that the DUP will be the Conservative’s coalition partner if they fail to secure a majority.

1:34 – Elliot Howells on #GenerationVote’s success in Cardiff

Unsurprisingly, Howells is pleased with increased turnout, and claiming it as an Students’ Union victory:

1:26 – Neil Kinnock weighs in

JS62944312JPG

Neil Kinnock is at his Aberavon, where his son is on the ticket for Labour. Here’s what he had to say:

“If the projected result is true it will lead to greater division in communities”. “Whatever people tell the opinion pollsters, when they’re in the polling booth they put what they think is their financial interests in supporting the Conservative Party over anything else”. Going on to say that “the Labour party is up against a bad mood in physcology by parts of the press”.

1:26 – BREAKING: Labour hold Wrexham

We’ve heard that Labour are holding Wrexham in our first Welsh announcement for the night.

1:25 – Cardiff North candidate and Cardiff Uni student disputing rumours of Farage’s loss

https://twitter.com/ethanrwilkinson/status/596463122896048128

Begs the question: why wasn’t he in the constituency he was contesting? Regardless, best of luck tonight, Ethan.

1:22 – Battersley announces

Conservative hold. They’re catching up.

1:19 – Newcastle Central is in (and Jim Murphy might have lost his seat).

Newcastle Central confirmed Labour hold.

There are also reports that Jim Murphy’s lost his seat – a massive blow for Scottish Labour, of which Murphy is leader. Announcement to come.

A friend north of the border just tweeted this:

https://twitter.com/weedroid/status/596469263730368512

1:13 – Tooting and Newcastle East announcements in.

Challenging Lewis Hopkin’s snapshot comes Rosemary Emery:

More constituencies to announce:

Newcastle East Labour hold.

Tooting’s just come in as a Labour hold, too. Sadik Khan is duly re-elected.

01:10 – Updates from Llanelli

Challenging Lewis Hopkin’s snapshot comes Rosemary Emery:

At first, we were sceptical – Emery’s been campaigning with Labour. But she cited Steffan Storch, who’s suggesting this based on what he can see of the count:

https://twitter.com/SteffanStorch/status/596465097628848129

He’s also commended us for our coverage of the Welsh Officer referendum – I’m sure anybody who shares that opinion will be interested in this week’s front page.

01:05 – Latest turnout figures in Wales:

Cardiff Central: 67.5%

Ceredigion: 69%

Llanelli: 65%

Merthyr Tydfil & Rhymney: 53%

Montgomeryshire: 69.5%

Ynys M├┤n: 70%

01:00 – Drama in Bradford

George Galloway demanding a recount, because *of course* he is.

00:55 – Voter turnout for Cardiff Central up 8 per cent

Voter turnout in Cardiff Central revealed at 67.47 per cent this year.

8 per cent higher than 2010 when voter turnout was 59.10 per cent.

#GenerationVote indeed! We’ll reach out to Elliot Howells and see what he makes of it all.

00:47 – Ynys M├┤n, Ceredigion or Llanelli? Which seat(s) will Plaid gain?

Much to the relief of Plaid Cymru, the party is projected to make at least one gain. But the question is where? Ynys M├┤n (Isle of Anglesey) is looking the most likely candidate, with tight races in Ceredigion and Llanelli.

With the surge in support for UKIP nationally, the party seems to have gained a large share of the dis-enfranchised working class voting base that Plaid sought to attract. This could be a big factor in many constituencies like Caerphilly and Merthyr Tydfil where UKIP may push Plaid into second or third place.

In 2010, Plaid came second in Ynys M├┤n with 26% compared to Labour’s 33%. Could this be where Plaid make their only gain?

00:45 – Isabel Hardman: Farage unsuccessful

Isabel Hardman is an excellent journalist. And I don’t think she’d risk saying this if there was a good chance she’d be wrong:

(Incidentally, Hardman judged best writer at this year’s Cardiff Student Media Awards. We’re big fans.)

00:42 – Updates from elsewhere: Llanelli

JOMEC student and all-round swell guy Lewis Hopkins is at the Llanelli count.

This is a Plaid / Lab battleground. Lab expected to hold: what does he think of Plaid’s chances?

00:40 – SWINDON ANNOUNCES

Swindon North has swung to the tories. Breakdown of results to follow.

00:35 – Does this count as a spoiled ballot?

A reader sent this in:

11216195_10203268362588657_655769737_n

“Fuck first past the post” (but, all else fails, the Liberal Democrats will do).

00:30 – Carwyn Jones in “stating the obvious” shock

With three seats announced, Carwyn Jones, First Minister of Wales, has delivered some cutting analysis.

Election_2015__Carwyn_Jones_says_result__not_clear__-_BBC_News

No way! But there’s only 600+ seats left to announce?!

00:25 – Richard Hopkin on those “Vote Lib Dem to get a Tory Government” leaflets

Perhaps unwisely, I asked Richard Hopkin (the Conservative Candidate for Cardiff Central) if he was planning to vote Liberal Democrat, in order to stave off a Labour Victory in Cardiff (which is what the polls are predicting). There’s a lot of chat about Tories being encouraged to vote Liberal Democrat in LD / Labour marginals, and plenty of these letters are reported to have been send in Cardiff (I, personally, have received two).

His response was – shall we say – lukewarm:

https://twitter.com/RichardCardiffC/status/596346572172087296

00:20 – Passing the baton

Michael O’Connell-Davidson taking over from Carwyn Williams here, who’s manned this liveblog for at least 9 hours.

People at home, please give Carwyn and Rhiannon Tapp a short round of applause – they’re doing an excellent job, and they’re planning to stay until the bitter end.

Roll on the results!

00:15 – Police investigate fraudulent voting

Police in Glasgow are investigating claims that someone walked into a polling station and took a vote under someone else’s name.

In the vote count, people have been told to look out for the said ballot, and count it and hand it to the police. This could delay the final result in the constituency.

00:10 – Do you love Boris?

In a weird turn of events, there seems to be a Conservative surge in Uxbridge where Boris Johnson has just arrived at the count:

00:00 Jenny Willott tweets

Incumbent Liberal Democrat MP Jenny Willott has just tweeted:


This suggests that she is not hoping for a win tonight, and recognizes that the Liberal Democrats are not going to have a great night.

23:50 – A brief history of Lib Dem support

If the BBC exit poll is correct and the Lib Dems only manage to hold on to 10 seats when tonight’s count ends, this will hail the worst result for Nick Clegg’s party since its formation as the SDP-Liberal Alliance in 1983. Five years ago, despite a loss of 5 seats, it managed to send 57 MPs to Parliament with a 23% vote share. Tonight’s exit poll puts this number on 8%, a fall of 15% since 2010. It is still unclear whether the numbers will add up to suggest another Lib-Dem/Conservative coalition will be possible (although the Tories may hope so), or even if Nick Clegg’s seat is safe after tonight’s apparent wipeout in Lib-Dem support. It now looks as though the party may even lose its heartland seats in Mid-Wales, the Scottish islands, and South West of England; it is hard to see if Lib-Dem support will recover in future elections.

23:15 – Student reaction to exit poll
Student reactions have been mixed in the Taf this evening:

“This is a good result for Britain”
– Anonymous, Conservative voter

“A disgusting result that shows an obvious naivety or self interest on behalf of voters”
– Anonymous, Green voter

“I voted Labour but was going to vote Green. Shocked and a little disappointed by five more years of coalition and how little progress has been made”
– Owen Richards

“Isn’t a very good result, it’s bullshit! I thought Labour would do much better, now we will have more of the same horrible austerity and rise in homelessness”
– Ailidh Durie, Sociology student, Labour voter

“I don’t think devastated is the right word”
– Rob Thomas, Geography student

“If this proves true, Labour have had an unbelievably bad night. I’m still speechless.”
– Jamie Williams, English student

“The exit poll has done little but confirm what we all expected: no clear majority”
– Gareth Evans, English student

23:00 – Lib Dems less popular than candidates in SU election

The results for Houghton and Sunderland South have come out, and we’ve noticed the major decline in Liberal Democrat support, whilst incumbent Bridget Philipson retains her seat.

In 2010, the Liberal Democrats had 5,292 votes.

Full Results: (2010 results)

Labour – 21,218 (19,137)
UKIP – 8,280 (1,022)
Conservatives – 7,105 (8,147)
Green – 1,095 – (n/a)
Lib Dems – 791 (5,292)
Turnout: 38, 489 (56.3%)

Only less than an hour ago, they received 791 votes in this constituency. That’s less than 15 per cent what they had last election!

In fact, Olivier van den Bent-Kelly, one of the students who ran for the role of VP Education in this year’s Cardiff Students’ Union Elections, received double the number of votes the Liberal Democrats did in Sunderland South.

Here’s his video (which appeared Radio One DJ Scott Mills’ show!) to refresh your memory:

22:55 – First result

The first result is in from Sunderland, missing out on their record results timings.
It showed an expected Sunderland hold for Labour, but surprisingly UKIP has leapfrogged into second place, making massive gains in a Labour stronghold, which looks to be an important factor in tonight’s results

 

22:50 It’s going to be a long night

So we have some exit poll results, and we have some analysis from the BBC stating that there are many seats that are just too close to call. If you want to stay up for the results, then Gair Rhydd will be reporting the results all night, with first results expected imminently, but the majority from about 3AM.

22:45 – YouGov exit polls

So, we’ve reported on the BBC exit poll, but at 10 a YouGov exit poll was also released, with very different results:

Conservatives: 284 seats
Labour: 263 seats
SNP: 48 seats
Liberal Democrats: 31 seats
UKIP: 2 seats
Green: 1 seat

What this primarily shows is that exit polls are unpredictable and cannot be relied on. This election is still wide open, and this result shows there was not a last minute shift for the Conservatives across the board.

22:30 What about the nationalists?

The SNP looks to do overwhelmingly well in Scotland, with the BBC forecast predicting to get 58 out of Scotland’s 59 seats, and unprecedented result.
Labour will be facing a disastrous night in Scotland, potentially being wiped out, a phenomenal prospect thinking they were by far the biggest party only five years ago.
The Liberal Democrats are also in for a rough night, losing seats accross the board in Scotland and in Wales.
Nicola Sturgeon herself has dismissed this poll however, but still expects a good night.
In Wales, Plaid Cymru seem to have done fairly well, fighting off Labour efforts to take Arfon, and even making a gain, a good result for Leanne Wood’s party.

22:20 The different combinations

So, where does this leave us?

  • The Conservative and Liberal Democrats have the numbers to continue the coalition with a majority of 1
  • The Conservatives could move to go for a minority government, only needing the support of a few MPs from any other political parties for different laws
  • On the BBC exit poll, it seems very unlikely Labour will be making it’s way to government, losing seats from last time around and the SNP combination will not even be close for governing

22:15: What is an exit poll?

  • An exit poll is taken from selected voters as they leave the polling station, after they have voted
  • The exit poll original results are processed to be accurate across the country, and try to gove a good prediction
  • In 2010, the exit poll was very accurate in predicting the result, however in 1992 the exit poll was very wrong, and therefore this cannot be considered as a result, but an analytical view on voting intentions

22:00 Exit Poll

The results of the Gair Rhydd election poll are in, and here are the results:

Exit Poll from the BBC shows:
Conservatives: 316 seats
Labour: 239 seats
Liberal Democrats: 10
SNP: 58
UKIP: 2
Green: 2
Plaid Cymru: 4

This is only a forecast, and a very unexpected forecast.

 

21:55 Gair Rhydd Poll Results

The results of the Gair Rhydd election poll are in, and here are the results:

Untitled

The results show that Labour are doing well amongst voters, and it was surprising to see as many Conservative voters in this are, suggesting a surge in ‘shy conservatives’. It shows Stevens is likely to take the Cardiff Central seat, but we will just have to wait to find out!

21:30 Half an hour to go until polling closes: let’s recap!┬á

There is just half an hour left to cast your vote if you have not done so. If you have missed today’s events, we have recapped on some main points:

  • Turnout is expected to be at its highest since 1997, when 71.4 turned out to vote.
  • Bookmakers show the odds are in favour of a Labour minority government at 2/1
  • There are concerns about the value of the pound and costs to traders protecting against overnight swings.
  • Property experts claim prices have been slashed on luxury properties amid the sell off of houses that could be affected by Labour’s proposed mansion tax.
  • In Darlington, the name of the UKIP candidate was missed off the ballot papers in one district. The error is┬ásaid to have affected 89 papers and the election carried on as normal.

  • In Scotland, the Tory leader Ruth Davidson claimed she had reports of voters being intimidated outside polling stations across Scotland
  • Muslims in east London borough Tower Hamlets were warned not to vote by leafleting campaign found on cars and outside some polling stations this morning. The leaflets claim that voting for man-made law is ‘shirk’: worshipping more than one deity, violating the rights of Allah’
  • David Cameron’s wikipedia page was hacked this morning leaving his page showing a picture of Ed Miliband with┬áthe words ‘Vote Labour’ remaining there for a short period of time
  • This election is likely to be the closest for decades with some polls showing Labour and Conservatives neck and neck.

 

20:00 What the bookies are saying

With the close of polling drawing nearer, Gair Rhydd has looked at what some of the odds are for results.

  • Nigel Farage in Thanet South is most likely to win the seat for UKIP
  • Mark Reckless looks likely to lose his seat tonight, but UKIP is set to gain Thurrock in it’s place
  • The Labour/Conservative marginal seat Nuneaton is set to be a Labour gain, which if true will set David Cameron off course for a majority
  • Most likely outcome of the election is a Labour minority government at 2/1, but
  • The odds show that David Cameron is more likely to be PM on July 1st

 

19:10 Fair weather voters

The Telegraph claims┬áthat: “Warm sunshine, particularly in the South of England could encourage a surge of fair-weather voters and push the numbers of Britons voting to beyond 70 per cent for the first time in 18 years.”

However, they think “scattered showers and some wind which are forecast in the North could keep away some undecided voters, and might harm Labour chances.”

Why labour voters would have a greater aversion to the rain than anybody else remains unclear.

 

18:15 Would AV have changed things?

In 2011, the UK voted against the Alternative Vote(AV) change to our electoral system, but would this have changed much in this election.
From findings from a Lord Ashcroft poll in December, the system would have actually benefited the Tories in this election.
He said in his report “If AV had gone through, we would now be looking at the clear possibility of an outright Tory victory.”

17:30 Vote in our Poll

Take our poll on whether you used a postal vote, and who you voted for here.

Also, from the campaign trail in Cardiff, Martin Pollard feels confident that his message is getting through to voters:

https://twitter.com/Martin_Pollard/status/596344831456182272

https://twitter.com/Martin_Pollard/status/596345257668804610

15:45 Protest planned if Cameron stays as PM

The People’s Assembly have planned a post-election protest on the doorstep of 10 Downing Street on Saturday should David Cameron stay on as PM without a majority.

The facebook event, ‘Stop the ‘Tory Coup’ is quickly gaining attendees, over 3,000 people have now joined the event.

The People’s Assembly last year organized an anti-austerity march in London where over 50,000 attended.

On the group it is stated: “We cannot allow the Tories to get away with using a flagrant abuse of power to impose the most severe austerity this country has seen since the Second World War.”

14:00 Voting problems

There were reports of voting issues in the marginal of Darlington, a spokesperson for Darlington Borough Council said that voting in the general and local elections was continuing as normal in Darlington but that the name of one candidate, David Hodgson (UKIP) had been missed off ballot papers issued to one polling station in the borough.

Approximately 89 ballot papers (0.1% of the total number of ballot papers printed) had been issued, but as soon as the issue was identified, corrected ballot papers were issued to the polling station concerned.
This will undoubtedly lead to controversy from the local UKIP group.

Ukip candidate for Darlington David Hodgson, Credit: Vicki Henderson

David Hodgson has already told the Northern echo “ItÔÇÖs shocking – absolutely terrible and inexcusable. I understand the Ukip office has been informed and will be lodging a protest. ┬áI donÔÇÖt know what happenened but surely some law has been breached. IÔÇÖve not got a clue what happens now but IÔÇÖm guessing the only way to resolve it is for it to be re-run.”

Also, up in Scotland, theScottish Conservatives’ leaser Ruth Davidson has tweeted reports of voters being intimidated outside polling stations and even being turned away, adding she has contacted the relevant authorities. ┬áThis claim however, cannot be confirmed.

Screen Shot 2015-05-07 at 13.51.56

There are also reports from east London and Dorset that IT problems have caused many not being on the electoral roll, despite having a poll card and registered.

If you’ve had enough of the General Election but still want to vote in something, today’s the deadline for voting in deciding Britain’s national bird. To find out more and to vote, click here.

13:15 Possible last minute Labour swing

More polls have been released this morning, with the final polls giving Labour an extra push. The parties are now neck and neck in the polls on average, as shown in this chart when we only consider the Conservatives and Labour:
LabCon
It could not be any closer, and we’re in for an unpredictable night. Remember polls give snapshots, not predictions. The next idea we will have on the result will be the BBC exit poll released at 10PM.
In other news, there is talk that ballot papers in Darlington have omitted one or more candidates. If true, this could lead to a false result in the constituency and ultimately a possible by-election.

13:00 #ivotedCSU

Cardiff students are turning out to vote in the election, tweeting an image of their polling card to #ivotedCSU, these are some of our favorites so far:

Screen Shot 2015-05-07 at 12.54.10 Screen Shot 2015-05-07 at 12.52.52Screen Shot 2015-05-07 at 12.53.12Screen Shot 2015-05-07 at 12.53.24 Screen Shot 2015-05-07 at 12.53.38

12:00 Local candidates update

Five hours into polling, and the local candidates are hopeful that they’ve got their message through to voters.

Jo Stevens for Labour started the day in Ramons cafe on Salisbury Road, tweeting:

Screen Shot 2015-05-07 at 12.00.47
The incubate candidate Jenny Willott was going around polling stations and was glad to see this new one:

Screen Shot 2015-05-07 at 12.01.20
Meanwhile Martin Pollard for Plaid Cymru added he was confident Plaid Cymru would give Wales a strong voice:
Screen Shot 2015-05-07 at 12.02.00

11:30 It’s election day

Good Morning, Gair Rhydd will be updating this page throughout the day and as the results come in tonight to keep you updated with the latest election news.  There are polling stations scattered around Cathays to ensure you get your say in this General Election.

The polls couldn’t be any closer, with the latest Lord Ashcroft poll coming in at 33% a piece for Labour and the Conservatives; this is one of the most unpredictable elections in British history, so make sure you’re part of it.

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