By Luke James
The Six Nations is back! All nations bring forth their title charges, grasping eyes not only on victory but a potential Grand Slam.
Not only is this one of Rugby’s greatest tournaments, but it also is an incredible platform to assess where each country looks to be ahead of the Nation’s Championship later this year.
Will Scotland finally place higher than third? Will Wales claim a singular test victory? Who will win Le Crunch? The best way to assess this is not to only look at squad selection, but recent trends.
Wales seems like a sensible place to start, given the location this paper is based. Steve Tandy’s men have a tough challenge facing them.
Hampered by political turmoil from the regions, as well as interesting squad selection (such as Rio Dyer’s omittance), the men in red have been written off before they get a chance to even play. Results from last year do not help.
Only two victories were recorded, both against Japan (one away, one home), alongside the worst ever defeat suffered in Welsh Rugby history at home (a 73-0 thumping by the Springboks). And yet while sat in the Principality I noticed something. This side has potential, buckets of it.
Blair Murray gets flak for his weakness around the high ball, but he is electric ball-in-hand. Tomos Williams is one of the best scrum halves in the northern hemisphere and probably starts for every other 6 Nations side bar France and Ireland.
Taine Plumtree and Aaron Wainright are lethal around the breakdown, and the Welsh pack isn’t shy of a maul. Structurally, Wales thrive in broken play, particularly when Williams is on the field.
With a set piece developing, and an ability to force pressure and score against tough opposition (including the All Blacks) shows sign of development. Wales could well upset Italy and will most certainly push Ireland at least for a half.
Scotland are always hard to talk about. Gregor Townsend has had what should be perceived as a golden generation for the last four years, and yet has no major silverware (excluding the Calcutta Cup).
Players like Huw Jones, Finn Russell, and Sione Tuipulotu have displayed themselves as some of the best in the world on their day. Pierre Schoeman is undoubtably one of the best scrummaging looseheads this side of the equator.
But Scotland never seems to convert this to victory when required. Sloppy game management around the final quarter undoes such brilliant early work. Every time I try and write about this team, I find myself in two camps; I either see Scotland winning the Six Nations with one loss, or finishing 4th or 5th.
And this time I have to err on the side of another disappointing year. Although the Ireland fixture will be one to target, the Calcutta Cup could unsettle potential progress.
Finn Russell will have to be on form because England will look to try one up his kicking game. Tactical targeting of the back three will be vital, as well as pressure for 50-22s and forcing early mistakes.
Scotland’s backs have the ability to break through and score out of nowhere against any of their opponents, but it will be up to the forwards to decide if victory will be achieved. Can they win? Yes. Will they? Probably not.
Italy. A side that not only five years ago was talked about being booted away. How wrong those ideas were. Statistics do not accurately reflect their ability.
Tomaso Menoncello is an incredible centre, his speed and flair partnered with Ignacio Brex’s brutality is a threat to any defensive line.
Simone Ferrari and Danilo Fischetti are fantastic props and showed that they could rise to even the challenge of the Springboks in the scrum.
If they can utilise their power and scrum to their advantage, the Azzurri have potential to threaten any opponent. Gonzalo Quesada has brought about a structure that suits Italy’s style.
Fast, aggressive, and with a fantastic flair, they provide a tough challenge to overcome. The intensity is going to pressure France in particular and could be the antidote to the DuPont gameplan.
Italy used to have a problem that they couldn’t keep up with opponents, or just couldn’t close out games, but that seems to have gone. Gone are the days where they were a tier 2 side, they are right in the mix where they should be, and potential victory against Scotland, Wales, or France is on the table.
Ireland are an interesting side. Bundee Aki’s suspension for the side for ill-treatment towards officials is welcome precedent. However, Andy Farrell’s men are in for a rough tournament.
An ageing side with far too few young replacements coming through, as well as a prop injury crisis can only lead to issues. Not only was the scrum destroyed during the Autumn Series, but ill-discipline was a key reason to the loss to the All Blacks in Chicago.
Lack of conversion in key areas with momentum in favour will be seen as weakness by their opponents. However, there is promise with Jamison Gibson-Park and Sam Prendergast giving stability in the halfbacks, alongside the jackaling threats of Tadgh Beirne and Josh Van Der Flier.
Ireland are far from favourites but have an outside chance. France and England will be overwhelming obstacles, and in particular the English power game will hurt Ireland up front.
Scotland and Italy should be more comfortable fixtures but could become issues if game management is done wrong.
Wales will be an open book, Ireland could win by 40 or lose by 2. Where Ireland will thrive is with good tactical kicking and rushed attacking play, using some power mixed with tactical ingenuity to gain advantage.
A successful Six Nations would be finishing in the top 3, but this could slip away due to a couple costly mistakes.
Irish rugby is in a bit of a predicament; a golden generation of talent came through but the system did not generate anyone to follow after, and now the shortfall is going to harm the national side for the coming couple of years.
Andy Farrell may have to make some audacious selections in the future for the side to develop.
France are just a joy to watch. Their flair, coupled with DuPont’s brilliance is just a fantastic rugby sight every time they play. But will they win a championship back to back?
Fabien Galthié’s side is probably the second favourite to take the crown and are clearly developing depth and talent.
The Top 14 has helped this for years now, but greater progress has come from Galthié letting his side play a fluid, natural game.
The tragic shock loss of Uini Antonio to a medical retirement will force greater prop depth development, and DuPont’s injury last season showed how well the scrum halves could adapt under pressure. The omittance of Damian Penaud and Gael Fickou from the squad is strange and unexpected to say the least, but Louis Bielle-Biarrey and Yoram Moefana are sure to pick up the slack.
France’s ruck speed and clearing has been impressive, and tactical kicking is a clear strong point, especially from Thomas Ramos.
However, upfront there is worry around the scrum and maul. The power game is strong, but will it be able to deal with England?
Le Crunch will be the biggest game of the tournament, and France will enter it as the underdogs. It will take some might to get on top of England, but if they can take victory, the path to the title grows greatly.
France are far stronger and faster than Ireland and Scotland, however Italy’s intensity could provide potential for a slip up. Chances of a Grand Slam is minimal but ever-present. If France can keep its intensity and ingenuity, it has plenty of space to break through and harass any backline.
For the first time in a couple of years, Steve Borthwick’s England are clear favourites. A strong game plan based on aggressive kicking and power provides platform where even sides like New Zealand crumble.
Some analytics put this current squad as the World Number Two, and it seems apt. Sam Underhill is definitely the best threat to any ruck in the tournament, and Henry Pollock, although divisive, is showing the excellence of the next generation.
Henry Arundell being back in the side will also provide pace on the wing that England needs to counter Louis Bielle Biarrey, and George Ford is probably the best fly half in the tournament alongside Finn Russell.
England’s rucking and scrum are probably the best in the Northern Hemisphere, but the open play and situational adaptability is where the real potential lies.
Aggression and enthusiasm can be overdone, like the “plastic energy” around celebrating knock ons like they’re trophy wins, but there is still much to be celebrated with this side. France will most likely be the toughest opponents, but Scotland is always one to watch out for.
Can pressure be sustained for the full 80 in Murrayfield? Will the scrum provide platform for potential penalties and attack?
Much is to be learned from this campaign, as the World Cup is less than two years out, but England’s draw is heavily favourable.
Where England could mess up is overconfidence and if the wrong fly half is selected on the day. Borthwick will have to decide which gameplan to implement each match, and if either Smith or Ford is given the wrong set piece to work with, loss will become more likely.
So all being said, it has to be England doesn’t it? Or does it?
France are right on their tail and I personally believe Le Crunch will decide the victor. Ireland and Scotland provide outside chances but will they stand up when the pressure gets too much?
The Six Nations always surprises us, and it is exciting to see how close it will be this year.
Thumbnail image: European Professional Club Rugby via Wikimedia Commons.