Helen Turnbull
With Reform UK rising on the right and the Greens gaining momentum on the left, the longstanding dominance of Labour and the Conservatives appears to be weakening.
Until recently, the Greens had little success in elections. Their previous best by-election result was in Somerton and Frome in 2023, where they finished third with around 10% of the vote. Following the 2024 general election, the party held just four MPs.
However, Hannah Spencer’s victory in Gorton and Denton marks a significant shift. The 34-year-old plumber and plasterer won 40.9% of the vote, beating Reform UK on 28% and leaving Labour in third place on 25%.
This result may point to a broader trend. A recent poll by YouGov placed the Greens on 21%, within touching distance of Reform on 23%. Notably, 25% of those who voted Labour in 2024 now say they would vote Green.
Party membership figures also suggest rapid growth, with numbers reportedly rising to 215,000 following the by-election victory, up sharply from 68,000 in September 2025.
For much of the 20th century, Labour and the Conservatives commanded around 90% of the vote. However, Keir Starmer’s push to move Labour towards the political centre has created space for alternatives.
Labour’s 2024 election victory came amid widespread frustration with Conservative rule, yet some voters feel the pace of change has been slow. The rise in Green support appears to reflect this sentiment.
In her victory speech, Spencer tapped into cost-of-living concerns, arguing that “working hard should get you a nice life”, but instead people are “being bled dry”. In her constituency, nearly 70% of voters backed either Reform or the Greens, suggesting strong support for parties outside the traditional mainstream.
Questions remain, however, about whether this surge can translate into lasting political influence. Rory Stewart has argued that the Green Party’s economic policies “do not make sense”.
At the same time, some voters appear more focused on the party’s ethical positions and stance on issues such as nuclear weapons, particularly in light of ongoing conflicts in the Middle East.
Starmer has warned of “the risk of splitting the progressive vote”, suggesting that such divisions could allow Reform to gain ground electorally.
Despite criticism, the symbolism of the result is significant. If the Greens can field more candidates with the relatability and appeal of Spencer, they may increasingly be seen as a credible alternative rather than a fringe party.
With several years until the next general election, the party has time to build on its momentum. Whether that support can be sustained remains to be seen.